Of course that's not perfect because it is chance and not guaranteed but I digress. Yeah, 12% chance with 100 footballs is higher than 8% with 35 footballs BUT 300 chances at 8% is 24 dailies whereas 12% of 100 chances is 12 dailies.
Sometimes it's A, sometimes it's B and sometimes it is C but each play is different. You have to figure out which player is the least costly per yard gained if your goal is to get a fully upgraded building. If player A is 40 footballs for 1 yard, player B is 76 for 2 yards and player C is 140 for 3 yards, player B is the most efficient at 38/yd (A is 40/yd and C is 46.3/yd). The mistake most people make is thinking they're always getting the better deal by choosing the most expensive (furthest) player. I think there was one event last year where I didn't get them all, too. Not sure if I will get level 10 (don't really care, either) even though I usually get fully upgraded buildings or sets.
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